Study – Cyclone Forecast
20, Oct 2018
Prelims level : Mains level : GS: Paper - I Important Geophysical phenomenon Cyclone
- Weather observations in the Arctic can help track tropical and mid-latitude cyclones more accurately, improving the forecast of extreme climate events found research.
- The data were analysed using a data assimilation system developed in Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, which can produce reanalysis datasets by “mixing” observations into global atmospheric conditions.
- Upper-level observations such as radiosondes in the Arctic can help to forecast mid-latitude extreme events. Impacts of the Arctic observations can transfer through the tropospheric polar vortex, which is massive low-pressure air mass over the Arctic or Antarctic regions at about 10-km altitude.
- The tropospheric polar vortex, sometimes, extends toward mid-latitudes accompanied with the meandering of mid-latitude westerly jets. This extension can occur even in summer, that is, in August-September, where the meandering and extension were relatively active among the recent years. Thus, the impacts of the Arctic radiosonde observations could influence the mid-latitude extremes, the courses of three tropical cyclones approaching to Japan or Northern US and Greenland, since the impacts transferred through the extended tropospheric polar vortex.
- Hurricanes and typhoons are one of the most influential phenomena for human life. Precise weather forecast is critical to enable communities to adequately prepare for weather disasters.
- Currently, meteorological observations are conducted by radiosonde, a weather instrument that records meteorological data, typically released into the atmosphere with a weather balloon.
- Due to hostile conditions experienced in the Arctic and the limited reach of the low-pressure system, the number and frequency of these observations are limited.
- There are gaps in the data that result in weather forecasts being less accurate than what they could and should be, potentially putting peoples’ lives at risk.
- Precise weather forecast is critical to enable communities to adequately prepare for weather disasters. As extreme weather events have been frequently observed in all seasons all over the world, Hurricanes and typhoons are one of the most influential phenomena for human life. The observations improved the predictability of the cyclones, allowing the scientists to track the paths of the cyclones as well as forecast their intensity more accurately.
- This study demonstrated the usefulness of additional Arctic observations for mid-latitude numerical weather forecasts for tropical cyclones.